Two briefings from CMS estimate the effects of mass deportations on the child welfare system and tax credit eligibility
New York, NY – The Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS) has released two new data briefings estimating the effects of mass deportation on the children of immigrants, including US citizens and legal permanent residents.
What Will Deportations Mean for the Child Welfare System? is authored by Matthew Lisiecki, Kevin Velasco, and Tara Watson and published in partnership with the Center for Economic Security and Opportunity, Brookings Institution. The brief estimates that:
- 3.8 percent of all US citizen children (2.7 million) are at risk of being left with no parents in their home under a mass deportation scenario.
- There are a further estimated 5.62 million US citizen children living with an undocumented household member at risk of being affected, representing about 8 percent of the 70.28 million citizen children living in the US. Of these children, 4.71 million (6.7 percent of all citizen children) have at least one undocumented parent in the household.
- Even with a conservative estimate of 10 percent of the children at risk of being separated from their parents, and only one-quarter of those being without a relative willing to take them in, we estimate that about 66,000 children would enter the foster care system, at an annual cost to taxpayers exceeding 400 million dollars. This influx would also add about 18 percent to the number of children in foster care.
- The child welfare system is neither required nor well-equipped to handle a large influx of American children who are separated from their parents due to immigration enforcement.
- Increased deportations and subsequent family separations could bring “economic hardship and severe emotional harm” to millions, the authors write.
“With the Trump administration directing substantial government resources to try to enact its mass deportation agenda, CMS estimates that 3.8 percent of all U.S. citizen children (2.7 million) are at risk of being left with no parents," CMS Senior Research and Policy Analyst Matthew Lisiecki said. “This would be a devastating outcome for the millions of American children who only have undocumented parents in their home, and risks overwhelming the child welfare system.”
The brief, What Will Deportations Mean for the Child Welfare System?, is available now.
A second brief, New Estimates of the Number of United States Citizen and Legal Permanent Resident Children Who May Lose Eligibility for the Child Tax Credit, is authored by Matthew Lisiecki, Danielle Wilson, Dolores Acevedo-Garcia, Sophie Collyer, Megan Curran, Joe Hughes, Emma Sifre, and Christopher Wimer. Key findings include:
- If proposals currently considered in debates about tax policy reform in the United States were implemented, an estimated 4.5 million citizen and legal permanent resident children with SSNs would become ineligible for the Child Tax Credit (CTC).
- The five states with the greatest estimated number of children who would be affected by such a policy change in CTC eligibility are: California (estimated population of affected children: 910,000), Texas (875,000), Florida (247,000), New York (226,000), and Illinois (196,000).
CMS Executive Director, Mario Russell, adds: “As policymakers consider restricting access to the CTC, these new findings underscore what’s at stake for millions of children and families. Initiatives like the CTC lift children out of poverty by reducing housing and food insecurity and improving children’s educational attainment and health outcomes. Cutting support for US citizen and legal permanent resident children simply because of their parents’ immigration status would be a cruel, short-sighted decision that would cause devastating short and long-term harms.”
The fact sheet was produced in partnership with the Center on Poverty and Social Policy at Columbia University, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, and the Boston University Institute for Equity in Child Opportunity & Healthy Development.
For more information, contact Rosalie Wells at rwells@cmsny.org or 347-407-5137.
The Center for Migration Studies (CMS) is a New York-based educational institute devoted to the study of international migration, to the promotion of understanding between immigrants and receiving communities, and to public policies that safeguard the dignity and rights of migrants, refugees, and newcomers. For more information, please visit www.cmsny.org.
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